By JOHN HOOD

RALEIGH – A useful way to think about the two Democratic wave elections of 2006 and 2008 is that they’ve taken America back to the status quo ante of 1993, though not all the way back in the case of North Carolina.

After the 1992 election, America had a young Democratic president promising change, economic recovery, and a middle-class tax cut and a Democratic Congress intent on federalizing health care and cutting defense spending. There were 57 Democrats and 43 Republicans in the U.S. Senate. In the House, the Democratic majority consisted of 256 members. At the state level, Democrats controlled both legislative chambers in 25 states, Republicans in eight, and power was split in 16 (Nebraska’s legislature is nonpartisan and unicameral). There were 29 Democratic governors, 20 Republicans, and one third-party governor.

Post a Job! $9 for 15 days

Now, in 2008, America has elected a young Democratic president promising change, economic recovery, and a middle-class tax and a Democratic Congress intent on federalizing health care and cutting defense spending. Assuming that local elections officials in Minnesota stop “finding” absentees ballots marked for Al Franken, there will be 57 Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents and 43 Republicans in the U.S. Senate. At this writing, the Democrats’ House majority looks like it will be roughly 256 members. Democrats control both legislative chambers in 27 states, Republicans in 14, and power is split in 8. There are now 29 Democratic and 21 Republican governors.

Do you find these parallels as remarkable as I do?

In North Carolina, the Republican tide of the mid-1990s has not quite receded all the way. In 1993, Gov. Jim Hunt entered office (again) with 53 percent of the vote and a legislature that was overwhelmingly Democratic (78-42 in the House and 39-11 in the Senate). The congressional delegation encompassed eight Democrats and four Republicans. Democrats controlled 73 out of 100 county commissions.

In 2008, Beverly Perdue won with just over 50 percent of the vote and lots of help from the Obama surge in North Carolina. Democratic majorities in the General Assembly will be 68-52 in the House and 30-20 in the Senate. The congressional delegation will be eight Democrats and five Republicans. I don’t yet have all the data on county commission races, but the count going into Election Day was 61-39 and party switches appear to have been rare this year.

None of this is to minimize the Democratic triumph of 2008. Indeed, it just serves to illustrate how significant an achievement it is to have rolled back the Republican Revolution of the 1990s, which for a dozen years had major effects on the nation’s politics and policies. However, talk on both sides of the political aisle about the possibility of a 2008 grand realignment along the lines of a new New Deal or Great Society is hyperbole from wishful liberals and doleful conservatives.

Do you remember what happened in 1993-94? The Clinton administration tried to enact a government-run health care system. It overreached. At the federal and state levels, Democratic politicians reacted to budget woes with massive tax increases, increased business regulation to address environmental and social issues, and imposed new restrictions on gun ownership, among other leftward lurches. Then they lost power.

By no means am I predicting a necessary recurrence of the same pattern in 2010. For one thing, while the overall political standings look similar to those of 12 years ago, the specifics and personalities involved are quite different. Barack Obama is a far more disciplined politician than Bill Clinton was, and his administration seems likely to be populated largely by Clinton-era veterans with long memories who will be loath to make the same costly mistakes. In his advertising, Obama explicitly campaigned against a government takeover of health care.

In North Carolina, Perdue must surely be aware of how she ended up with the top job and the potential economic and political consequences of adopting reckless fiscal and regulatory policies in response to the state’s many challenges. During the campaign, Perdue promised a new openness in state government and a special commission to target wasteful spending. She ran to Pat McCrory’s right on taxes, pointing to Charlotte-Mecklenburg’s relatively high tax burden and boasting that when Perdue had helped fashion the state budget after the devastation of Hurricane Floyd, she had addressed state needs without raising taxes “a dime.”

In the General Assembly, too, it’s not yet clear to me that Democratic leaders are willing to risk their majorities with big tax increases and other unpopular policies. In other words, I don’t think Republicans can count on a Democratic lurch to the left.

Still, you’ve got to admit. The political picture today looks eerily familiar.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of CarolinaJournal.com.